Deal or No Deal is a game show originally airing in the Netherlands in 2001. Deal or No Deal has been recreated in 67 different countries since and has been a ratings hit for NBC in the United States version of the game where it is hosted by comedian Howie Mandel on Wednesday nights. Deal or No Deal initially has a player pick one of 26 numbered briefcases. Inside each of the briefcases there is a dollar amount from one cent to $1,000,000. The player’s initial briefcase remains unopened. After that, a Deal or No Deal contestant begins to pick numbered briefcases which are opened and expose which dollar amounts the player obviously doesn’t have in their own briefcase. After a number of these briefcases are opened the player is presented with an “offer” by a banker who appears out of sight to the player. This offer represents a dollar amount that the player can accept now with no further risk. Almost always in the early part of Deal or No Deal the offer represents a worse than average figure to try to sway the risk averse. Obviously if a Deal or No Deal contestant accepts the offer they are accepting that dollar amount against the chance that their personal briefcase contains a nominal amount such as one cent or five cents. If the player accepts the offer they receive that amount and a new contestant plays the game. If the player doesn’t accept the offer they continue opening briefcases and will be presented a new offer as it becomes more certain which dollar figure they have in their personal case. The odds of having the $1 million prize in the contestant’s briefcase in the traditional version of Deal or No Deal are 1/26 (3.84%). In practice, the odds that the player wins the $1 million are much rarer as many players wrestle with the decision between a $200,000 offer from the Deal or No Deal banker and the possibility that they pass that up and “lose” that $200,000 if their briefcase contains five cents. Psychologists have studied Deal or No Deal and have found that it’s a classical version of a risk management game and have found that people with seemingly “found money” tend to lock in a small win as opposed to passing it up and potentially looking foolish in front of everyone watching. To add to the psychological pressure, Deal or No Deal often allows family members of the contestant to assist them in the decision making process which subtly adds more pressure to a player who is already possibly risk averse. For these reasons Deal or No Deal has remained on in the United States for almost 3 years without anyone winning the grand prize of $1,000,000. In the international versions of Deal or No Deal there have been several grand prize winners, but many of these shows have much lower grand prizes than the United States version. The show has been a huge success for NBC and is expected to remain on the air indefinitely.
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